Tier 1 All NBA
An unstoppable force. Players who project get 30+ on most nights, and even 40 if their teams needs them. Apart from that, they also bring enough creation and defense to be a plus in all aspects of the game. Think Zion, Embiid, LeBron, Luka
Tier 2 Multi Time All Star
Players that are usually secondary stars on good teams. Efficient 25+ scorers, with some creation and defense. Or someone like Trae Young, monster scorer and creators who struggle defensively.
Tier 3 Efficient Multidimensional players
Players who project to be able to guard multiple positions and are efficient scorers like a Mikal Bridges for example. Or players who can score and create at an above average rate and hold their own defensively, like a Mike Conley for example.
Tier 4 Efficient Defenders
Three and D wings or guards who can only shut down players their own size. Rim protectors who can also pressure the rim in PnR and finish efficiently when pair with a good point guard.
Tier 5 Either Efficient or Good Defenders
Players who are a plus as scorers or creators but drag your team down on defense. Players who can defend multiple positions well, but drag your team down on offense. Like a efficient sixth man scorer, a good rim protector who struggles to finish efficiently, good starting PG who is a mess on defense, wing who shoots and makes a lot of 3s but doesn’t contribute in any other way.
Tier 6 Empty Calories
Players who can put up numbers but aren’t efficient, like a gunner from the bench, turnover prone playmakers who can’t score nor defend, post up big with 0 defense.
Current Gut Feeling First Round
Tier 1
Nobody
Tier 2
Paolo Banchero
Tier Range 1-3
Players of his size, strength and skill don’t bust, and usually become stars. I see him as a 25+ PPG guy in his prime on plus efficiency. His prime will be similar to the season Siakam is having this year
Tier 3
Jabari Smith
Tier Range 2-4
Awesome floor spacer with flashes of everything else. I think he will be fine defensively but I worry about the scoring. A 6 10 guy putting up 6 3 guard shooting splits is a red flag to me. Could be a 6 10 CJ McCullum, or a better Austin Daye. Time will tell
Chet Holmgren
Tier Range 1-5
My favorite prospect of this draft cycle. There is so much to like, but the body is a worry, and it could really limit him going forward. I really hope everything clicks for him
Jaden Ivey
Tier range 2-5
He’s not Ja Morant, and that’s fine. He should be a lot more dangerous in the league than he’s currently at Purdue. Has to work so hard off ball to get scoring opportunities because Edey and Trevion clog the lane and go full surprised Pikachu face when a player doesn’t pass them the ball in the post. If the passing and shooting keep improving he could be a multi time All Star. If it regresses, he’s a fun sixth man.
Johnny Davis
Tier Range
2-4
Its hard to see Davis busting out of the league. He has so much skill stamina and effort. Its really hard to be a guard with close to 35% usage and still get 15 boards. The team that drafts him needs to be smart and will play a major in his development. If they force him as a go to scorer at first, they will hurt his value. Let him be a good 3nD wing with a bit of creation and self creation with the second unit and build upon that into a potential borderline All Star.
Benedict Mathurin
Tier Range
2-5
Awesome athlete and floor spacer, not sure the height is really what they say it is. His on ball development especially attacking off the dribble and off the dribble 3s are the foundation of his potential stardom. Again, players with his dimensions, shooting and athleticism rarely fail.
Kendall Brown
Tier Range
1-4
Best athlete in the draft, and one of the best in the last 10 years. Insane explosiveness. There are flashes of creation and scoring but still pretty raw. If everything clicks for Brown he will be a force in the league. IF his shot and handle don’t improve you still got a good glue guy wing who can defend multiple positions, be a menace in transition or from the dunker spot.
Jalen Duren
Tier Range
2-4
He’s super young, outlier strong and has no point guard. There are some flashes of being more than rim wrecker, like short roll passing or face up game. Betting on the age and tape from high school.
Tari Eason
Tier Range
3-5
Favorite defender in this year’s draft. The leap is incredible and makes me think that with time his offensive arsenal as scorer and creator will blossom as well.
Keegan Murray
Tier Range
3-5
Scores in so many ways and plays really hard. Has the body to guard multiple positions, like the grab and go potential as well.
TyTy Washington
Tier range
2-6
Kentucky guards are tricky and his situation isn’t ideal, playing next to a Lilliputian point guard. His play as solo ball handler, even without the record, make me comfortable taking him this high. Only guard in the class who could shoot, pass, dribble and defend at a high level.
Jeremy Sochan
Tier Range
3-5
Legit 6-9, makes plays on both ends, further along offensively than Brown, but not the same level of athlete. The touch on FTs looks really bad at times and I really worry about him shooting at the next level, but it’s a weak draft and he has too much upside to slide him lower.
Tier 4
AJ Griffin
Tier Range 2-5
The scoring flashes are amazing, but he rarely does anything else. The injuries are a major concern. Could end up amazing, like a thicker Devin Booker, but if the injuries persist odds are he won’t see a second contract.
Justin Lewis
Tier Range
3-5
Strong wing who can defend, rebound and stretch the floor. Has some on ball creation flashes, maybe that turns into something more at the next level.
Walker Kessler
Tier Range
4-5
Immense rim protector, generational even. I like that he’s taking 3s hope he turns into a floor spacer because I worry about the finishing at the next level, no real pop and its hard to get away with just size in the NBA.
Christian Braun
Tier Range
3-5
I know everyone has Agbaji higher but if his shot regresses, what is he? Braun offers a lot of everything, he is close to the level of athlete Agbaji is, younger as well. If he keeps improving as a shooter could be a very important cog in one of the best teams in the league.
Max Christie
Tier Range
3-5
The shot hasn’t been falling, the role is very limited as well, but the flashes are simply irresistible. Its impressive that as a kid who just turned 19 he is already being used by Michigan State as their primary point of attack defender. The body will get stronger, the shot will get better and the handle is already a weapon. No matter where he goes in the draft he will be a winning player in the NBA for 10+ years. Even if , God forbid, he ends up on the Kings.
Mark Williams
Tier Range
4-5
Everything you want out of a excellent drop big rim protector. Has size and length but not that explosive, here and there I worry about the finishing in the league, but should be a average or above average starting center in the league for a decade.
JD Davison
Tier range
2-6
The athleticism is great, the hair is awesome, transition play jaw dropping, anything in half court utter disappointment. His vision is legit, creates easy dunks and 3s out of thin air. But turns the ball over like crazy. Just a wild player right now. Might be a weird comparison but reminds me of the former Spain striker David Villa before he joined Valencia. Speed-demons who once they learn to control that speed become awesome. But they also bust hard.
Ismael Kamagate
Tier range 4-6
A big man with footwork that would make Tchaikovsky weep with joy. Moves incredibely well for a guy almost seven foot, good instincts around the rim on defense. But slim, worry about the offensive part of it.
Tier 5
Nikola Jovic
Tier range 3-6
Incredible combination of size skill and age. But he looks so slow, especially struggles staying in front of guys. If the skills keep ramping up he could be quite a special offensive player even with the athletic hiccups. But the league could be too much to handle physically and he could bust out of the league without the second contract.
Ochai Agbaji
Tier range
3-5
Great athlete and scorer, finally put a lot of things together. Could be an above average starting 2 on a good team. But the shot could also revert, and you got a solid sixth man who plays 15-30 mins depending if the shots falls or not.
Marjon Beauchamp
Tier Range
3-5
He plays with so much will and energy, hard to resist. But he is also older than most of the guys, plays as a 3,4 but is built like a 2,3. And the most important thing of all, the shot really needs to improve. If the shot improves and he becomes an at least average floor spacer in terms of percentage and volume, you are looking at a steal and I will be a foolish idiot for having him so low on my first mock of the year (and we all know they are all that matters when judging those who judge).
Dyson Daniels
Tier Range
3-5
A point guard version of Beauchamp, but still very young. If the shot falls he will be what we all hoped Frankie Smokes could become. Creation isn’t as valuable when you can’t score or shoot (unlike what the creator of Kuroko’s Basketball might have you believe).
Josh Minott
Tier Range 3-5
Looks like a prototypical scoring big wing secondary creator. But a non shooter, and still slight. IF I had to bet on one player who could wreck my tier range prediction its Josh Minott.
EJ. Liddell
Tier Range
3-5
Wish he was taller. Strikes me as a very skilled version of PJ Tucker, I just worry his dominance translating to the NBA.
Jaden Hardy
Tier Range
2-6
He is like a basketball cosplayer. Every move makes sense and it looks good, but the ball just doesn’t go in, and if the ball isn’t going in, well he’s not a primary scorer, but a bench guy. There isn’t much defense. But there is enough potential as scorer there to a plus in the NBA. I just wonder good of a scorer does he need to be to nullify everything else that’s and will be bad, like the defense, creation and general decision-making. I liked Cam Thomas more, and this is where he went last year.
Jean Montero
Tier Range
3-6
Can’t really make heads or tails of the OverTime thing. Generally I’m bullish on guards who are negatives on defense. After TyTy he’s the most skilled guard. If everything clicks he will be a good point guard, but could also be a disaster on both ends.
Trevor Keels
Tier Range
4-6
Very young and built like a bulldozer. But the scoring and floor spacing, with some exceptions, has been an abject disaster. See him as a 3nD guard.
Christian Koloko
Tier Range
4-5
One of the best defenders in college, solid switching, but still slight frame and a question on offense. Should be a rotational big for years to come.
What To Consume 